Sudden surge in demand for N95 masks as Wuhan coronavirus turns into global contagion.

A virus with no cure has raised panic across the governments of the globe. Some countries are closing borders with China, while others are awaiting approval from the Chinese authority to fly back their possible patients. As the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak continues to spread, officials in China are urging citizens to wear N95 masks in public to stop the spread of the virus -  and cities in China, as well as other parts of Asia, are reportedly running out of face masks.

Why only N95 masks?

Medical experts are yet to conclude the exact process of transmission of novel coronavirus but are recommending it as most airborne pathogen -  germs that can travel in particles or droplets in the air spread inside the body by touching of face or nose. The cheap (single layer) surgical masks which come in green or blue colour aren’t thick enough to prevent viruses. The N95 respirators are made of special antiviral medical textiles are found to be more superiors in the prevention of similar contagions. These come with 6 layers of medical textiles with the branded ones being certified by US-based National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH).

The Centre for Disease Control (CDC), a premier US government institute strongly recommends a self-controlled lockdown of self and family along with minimum intervention with outsiders or neighbours. In case of emergency, CDC recommends proper use of N95 respirators outdoor all the time. These respirators are designed to fit tightly around the nose and mouth, and, when worn correctly, block out at least 95% of small airborne particles, says a CDC guideline.

With the disease quickly spreading from Wuhan to other districts, China is running out of N95 masks. China, despite being the largest manufacturer of Medtech accessories is eyeing Indian suppliers to replenish stocks. Traditionally, India is a major importer of surgical masks but a severe shortage in Chinese markets has reversed the trade chain. There’s panic among Chinese families and demand for N95 masks has surged suddenly. Eyeing this situation, ANI reported that India’s Medtech companies are working around the clock to meet export orders. Due to excessive shortage, Indian exporters have been told to wait for at least 20 days before they ship their consignments by air.

Prevention is better than cure

India’s National Centre for Disease Control has issued a RED level warning regarding Novel coronavirus, novel because such type of virus has never been detected before. The guidelines are:

• All non-essential travel to China to be avoided.
• Observe good personal hygiene.
• Practice frequent handwashing with soap.
• Follow respiratory etiquettes - cover your mouth when coughing or sneezing.
• Avoid close contact with people who are unwell or showing symptoms of illness, such as cough, runny nose etc.
• Avoid contact with live animals and consumption of raw/undercooked meats.
• Avoid travel to farms, live animal markets or where animals are slaughtered.
• Wear an N95 mask if you have respiratory symptoms such as cough or runny nose.
• Report to the nearest Government doctor and inform him about your travel history.

World Health Organisation has declared coronavirus as a global epidemic. Economists expect a cut of 2 to 3% in China’s GDP. This would severely affect and add to an existing global slowdown.

Source - CDC - US Government, PIB - Government of India.

#MarketWatch: What next for Manpasand Beverages?

Over the last few weeks, the Indian stock market has been hit with several shocks. The large caps were affected by rising crude and currency prices. The tumble in the small cap and mid-cap were led by the investor confusion in few selective stocks like Vakrangee, Inox Wind and Manpasand Beverages. Manpasand Beverages through its corporate disclosure declared the announcement of resignation of its statutory auditors M/S Deloitte Haskin & Sells, Vadodara. On the subsequent day, the Board of Directors of Manpasand Beverages appointed M/s Mehra Goel and Co., as their statutory auditor for the year. The newly appointed accounting firm has 13 partners on-board with an operational experience of sixty five years.

Although, there have been many cases of resigning auditors in the recent past. Several misinformed presumptions were disseminated through mainstream and social media which affected investor sentiments at large. Most of them are unsubstantiated rumours that are not based on any factual evidence and a lot of shareholders and investors have been negatively impacted. In fact, according to Prime Database, between January and May 2018, 32 auditors have resigned midterm, while for 2017-18 the number of exits stood at 36. 

Investors should be aware that Deloitte was auditing the financial results of Manpasand Beverages for the last 8 years and had never expressed their concerns on the financial performance of the company. Further, there has been no instance till date where the company has denied disclosure of any financial information. This rumour ride has affected the stocks of the company. Although the investors should prefer official sources of information than media agencies for further investment opportunities.

Manpasand Beverages has been one of the fastest growing listed FMCG companies. The company reported staggering 43.8% rise in net profit of Rs 72.6 crores for the financial year end of 2017. The total income for the same year stood at Rs. 735 crores. For Q3 2017-18, India’s leading fruit drink player, Manpasand Beverages, reported a growth of 64% rise in net profit at Rs 11.9 crores against net profit of Rs 7.2 on Year on Year. 

A 2016 report by Mintel on the global juice market indicates that in India too, packaged juice is likely to grow by taking a share from fresh-squeezed juice and moving into small cities and more rural areas, similar to what is observed globally.

“In India, for example, local fruit juice manufacturer Manpasand Beverages found success focusing on semi-urban and rural markets, where growth is fuelled by rising disposable incomes and a void left by bigger brands that have largely stuck to urban centers,” the Mintel report states. 

Manpasand's healthy market position in the fruit drink segment is underpinned by presence of brand Mango Sip and Fruits Up. The company has made several innovations in the past couple of years, which have enabled it to enter in top 5 players in the mango-based drinks market. In fiscal 2014, it launched the Fruits up brand in the carbonated drink market. The brand grew 71.30% over the past three fiscals and contributed 25% to the company's revenue in fiscal 2017. With network of 4000 distributors across the country and strong presence in Western and northern parts of India, revenue increased significantly over five fiscal through 2017.

The company already has 5 manufacturing units spread in Vadodara, Varanasi and Ambala. Manpasand Beverages plans capex of Rs 600 crores to increase manufacturing capacity with plants at Sri City, Vadodara, Varanasi, and in Khurda, Odisha. The ground-breaking ceremony of upcoming Khurda plant was commenced in the august presence of CM of Odisha, Shri Naveen Patnaik. These four new plants are sure to double the company’s production capacity in the coming months. This shall also help the brand to reach newer markets as the production facilities increase. Manpasand Beverages also plans to enter into new beverage verticals in near future.

What market investors want? Stable outlook, prospective growth and a laborious past for a glorious future. Manpasand Beverages Limited was set up as a proprietorship firm named Manpasand Agro Foods in 1996 in Vadodara, and was reconstituted as a private limited company in fiscal year 2012 and public limited company in fiscal year 2014. Since then it has been expanding its market portfolio. 

Manpasand’s flagship brand, Mango Sip is growing by leaps and bounds and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 33.1% to Rs 1,408 crore by FY20. The recent backlash against carbonated cola drinks especially in the south and the upcoming Sricity facility will help Manpasand acquire southern markets. The Indian Juice market is expected to register compounded annual growth rates (CAGR) of 8% by 2022 to cross Rs. 17,500 crore compared to around Rs. 12,040 crore at present, according to Euromonitor International. The report states that the regional players and start-ups are currently challenging present market leaders by introducing new healthy lines of juices. Over the forecast period, these companies are expected to increase their production capacity and distribution networks to ensure year-round availability, which is likely to affect the current competitive landscape of juice in India.

The Euromonitor International report states that Coca Cola, Parle Agro, PepsiCo and Dabur together account for the vast bulk of juice sales primarily due to their successful portfolios of mango-based drinks. However, companies like Manpasand Beverages and Hector Beverages are quickly gaining market share since the last couple of years. Also, a Motilal Oswal report published in May 2018 suggested that Manpasand Beverages Limited shall see continuous growth in the coming years and would positively impact in its stock value.

Much of the ambiguity around Manpasand Beverages was to do with the fact that the company had not shared a schedule for its Meeting of the Board of Directors of the Company. However, now that the company has informed the bourses that it would convene a board meeting on June 27 to consider and approve audited financial results for Q4 FY2017-18. Soon, after this corporate announcement, the shares of Manpasand Beverages saw an upward trend since the third week of June; further validating the growing positivity about this company in the investor community.

Disclaimer – We have provided all information based on our research and we do not have any holding. Please consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

- Chaitanya Kulkarni.

Ayushman Bharat health insurance will cover 50 crores Indians in just Rs 12,000 crores

Saifee Hospital, Mumbai

Ayushman Bharat aka ModiCare will be the world's largest government-sponsored health assurance scheme.

How much does it take to cover almost 50% of India's 'mammoth-size' population? Not much, actually. The useless debates on the Indian media and the over-estimation by India's weak opposition would have come to halt if both of them would have done some basic research. Forget research, most of these daily debaters didn't even invite insurance experts on the panel. Although the budget 2018 brings a ray of hope for farmers and India's poor, Indian media was disappointed with little changes in tax slabs. Some sections of Indian media being completely clueless starting calling Ayushman Bharat as 'a hoax to win votes'.

Swasth Bharat = Saksham Bharat

The general budget 2018-19 was aimed at making path-breaking interventions to address health holistically, in the primary, secondary and tertiary care systems, covering both prevention and health promotion. 

The initiatives are as follows:-  

Health and Wellness Centre:- The National Health Policy, 2017 has envisioned Health and Wellness Centres as the foundation of India’s health system. Under this 1.5 lakh centres will bring health care system closer to the homes of people. These centres will provide comprehensive health care, including for non-communicable diseases and maternal and child health services.  These centres will also provide free essential drugs and diagnostic services. The Budget has allocated Rs.1200 crore for this flagship programme. The contribution of the private sector through CSR and philanthropic institutions in adopting these centres is also envisaged.

National Health Protection Scheme:- The second flagship programme under Ayushman Bharat is National Health Protection Scheme, which will cover over 10 crore poor and vulnerable families (approximately 50 crore beneficiaries) providing coverage up to 5 lakh rupees per family per year for secondary and tertiary care hospitalization.  This will be the world’s largest government-funded health care programme. Adequate funds will be provided for smooth implementation of this programme.

The National Health Protection Scheme aka 'ModiCare' will be the world's largest government-sponsored health assurance scheme. The much-appreciated ObamaCare in the US had approximately 30 crore enrollees. The United Kingdom through its National Health Services offers free healthcare to its 10 crore ordinary citizens at public hospitals. The 2017 UK budget allocated 6.3 million pounds for spending in NHS. India's newly announced NHPS will cover all of India's 50 crore poor citizens at the public as well as the privately operated hospitals.

'ModiCare' will cover nearly 50% of India's population is just Rs 12,000 crore

Insurance experts firmly believe that India's 10 crore poor families can be covered in just Rs 12,000 crores. Since healthcare is a state subject, 50% of the cost of premium will be borne by state governments. Rs 6,000 crore annually, from the central government is a small amount of India's 25 lakh crore general budget. As India grows, the 'ModiCare' scheme is likely to be expanded to all of its 128 crores + citizens and later we be can even be linked with retirement benefits, like the one's offered in ObamaCare. Currently, only 5% of India's population is covered by a health insurance.

Health insurance for India's poor is a not an initiative, as India's weak united opposition said. The Rashtriya Swastha Bima Yojana covered most of the blue-collar workers with Rs 30,000 year. The newly announced NHPS has been a talk-of-the-nation as Rs 5 lakh per year is enough to treat life threating diseases like cancer or cardiac illnesses. Various states in India have announced health insurance scheme but only Rajasthan's mass health coverage scheme comes close to 'ModiCare'.

Rajasthan's Bhamasha Swasthya Bima Yojana, tendered in December 2017, will cover nearly 4 crore poor people of Rajasthan state. The project of Rajasthan's state-sponsored insurance was bagged by New India Assurance Ltd. This is one of the largest health insurance schemes in the country as it gives health cover for cashless treatment of 1,401 diseases - of Rs3,00,000 for 663 critical and Rs30,000 each for 738 general illnesses. The total insurance premium involved in Bhamasa Swasthya Bima Yojana is more than Rs1,200cr per annum with the State bearing Rs. 1,261 per family.

As the spread increases in insurance, the premium is expected to lower further. Rs 1,261 per family in Rajasthan could be reduced further to Rs 800 to Rs 1,000 per family in India. The tenders for NHPS are likely to be announced in Q1 2018 and the L1 bidder (that is the lowest bidder) for each state or tehsil will be selected. It is utmost important to maintain actuarial price for the successful implementation of this mammoth-sized project. This is India's golden chance to improve the standard of living of its poor citizens. With the demand for qualitative healthcare in small cities, the supply of multi-specialty quality hospitals are expected to reach the length and the breadth of this country. 

According to TheIndianCapitalist.com, the economies of scale and scope can do wonders for India. It is a humongous task, a case study for the world to achieve Sustainable Development Goals by the Year 2030. With the sincerity of purpose, honesty and giving-it-back attitude, India will be successful in this project. It's much appreciated that India's powerful man, the Prime Minister, is committed towards his duty towards Right to Qualitative Healthcare.

- Chaitanya Kulkarni

BUILDING THE CONNECTED COW FOR OPERATION FLOOD 2.0

Each and every task we do today will be transformed tomorrow with the Internet of Things. With its unlimited applications with various genre of industries, IoT has today become the Internet of Everything. With the use of technologies like sensors, high tech camera, Global Positioning Systems and big data, the source can be mined for meaningful information. Connected Cow concept has become a globally accepted technology in precision agriculture space.

The advent of technology can create ‘food for everyone’ keeping in mind the outburst of the ever-growing population. The quality of the food is deteriorating with continuous manual intervention. But technology has helped us to increase food production due to technologies like tractors, accurate weather forecasting and biotechnology. By 2050, the world will need to produce 70% more food than it did 10 years ago.

For hundreds of years, the dairy business remained essentially the same. A family would milk its own cows and sell any surplus to neighbours or the local community. But over the last century, new machines were invented, urban populations exploded and the price of land and manpower has skyrocketed. These trends and others put pressure on farms of all types to consolidate, specialize and increase production to keep supermarket shelves full. The connected cow concept has the potential to manage 1000s of cows by a handful of people.

Launched in the 1970’s, the Operation Flood mission by India’s Dairy Development Board has helped India to be the largest producer of milk in the world. Not just the largest consumer of milk, but today we are also the largest consumer of cheese, butter, buttermilk and ice-creams made by milk. Our love of milk is associated with the exponential sales of Shrikhand, Basundi and Mithais. To meet the demands of ever-growing middle-class Indians, we need to re-launch Operation Flood with the mix of Artificial Intelligence.

The concept of the connected cow was first introduced in the Startup Nation of Israel. With geo-tagging of cows and accurate use of big data, an average cow in Israel gives 12,000 litres of milk per year i.e whopping 32 litres per day. An average Indian breed of cow has the capacity of giving only 3 litres per day. Although, the milk quality of Indian desi is A2, which is much superior to of Israeli cows. Agricultural experts are of an opinion, Desi Indian cows can give 5 times more milk if proper care of cow nutrition and health is guaranteed.

SCR Dairy, Israel uses Microsoft Azure on a windows software. They have a software named HealthCow24 which is a modern breakthrough for a traditional industry. It transmits big data through RFID tags which are located on the ear of the bovine. This cow-monitoring system gives farmers insights that can boost milk production, smooth the calving process and ensure healthier cows — all while saving time. All you need is PC to check updates about the status of the cow. The system aggregates data from the sensors and conveys it to the farm’s office, and it’s available through a mobile application so farmers have access to data about cows’ heat cycles and health from anywhere at any time. It also allows farmers to make lists, prepare reports, sort cows by category and track each animal’s overall history.

Pune’s Chitale Dairy which is famous for awesome Bhakarwadi and milk products has been an industry first in India to implement connected cow solution. Chitale Dairy produces 400,000 litres of milk per day, as well as cream, butter, and yogurt—all from a remotely managed herd of almost 200,000 cows. Only 1,000 of the animals are kept at the company’s facility in Maharashtra state, the rest are owned and cared for by 10,000 small family farmers. Chitale is helping its satellite farmers keep their cows healthy and productive through its “Cows to Cloud” program. The cow-cloud connection is enabled by a radio-frequency identification (RFID) tag attached to the animal. Data on each cow (such as blood profile, nutritional needs, and milk production) is automatically collected daily and sent to Chitale’s data centre which is powered by Dell VMWare. The data can be easily accessed through a secured web or even mobile app.

India is investing big in big data analytics to improve its milk production. The government has decided that all 88 lakhs bovines in India should get mandatory ear tags enabled with RFID tags along with Unique Identification Number (Just like Aadhaar Card) which then can be tracked through an application. It is spending more than Rs 150 crores for the project. The UID tags are tamper-proof made of a polyutherine material with UID number. The project could double the production of milk by improving the health of Indian cows/buffalos. Within a few years, cattle owners using connected cow tech will see tangible benefits of precision agriculture.

– Chaitanya Kulkarni

Originally published on digicookies.com | Tech that transforms life.

Under The Dome - China's Pollution problem

China is talking about its pollution problem, but its equally serious class problem remains obscured behind the haze. Smog leapt to the forefront of Chinese national discourse after the Feb. 28 release of Under the Dome, a 103-minute long documentary quickly hailed as China’s version of the Inconvenient Truth. In the film, which immediately went viral on social media and garnered 150 million online views within days before being censored, investigative reporter Chai Jing explained the root causes of air pollution that has ravaged so much of China in the past few years. But there’s a sharp class angle to the pollution question that Chai’s documentary did not engage. While smog is the most visible problem afflicting middle class in mega-cities like Beijing and Shanghai, China’s other half - the rural and poor population - often suffer a nasty pollution paradox: they face health risks from their air and water, but also depend on polluting industries for their livelihoods.

Link - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6X2uwlQGQM

Under the Dome alluded to the problems like Air, Soil, Water, Chemical pollution when it included a short clip of Chai’s 2004 interview with the local environmental protection agency (EPA) director in Shanxi province, who told her that at the time, 88.4 percent of rivers in the province were polluted and 62 percent were no longer useable. In 2014, according to a survey by the national EPA, 60 percent of China’s groundwater was considered "bad" or "very bad." Villagers who still rely on wells may find their water sources completely contaminated by nearby factories, but have little redress.



Concerns about urban smog have accelerated the relocation of heavy polluters to rural areas, where the local population may be less empowered to resist. For example, in 2005, Shougang, one of China largest state-owned steel manufacturers, moved its main production facility near the center of Beijing to a small town on Bohai Bay, 150 miles from the capital, in response to worries about about air pollution ahead of the 2008 Beijing Olymics. In 2014, large cities like Harbin and Hangzhou shifted factories out of their city centers to alleviate public concerns about smog. In a 2011 report, China’s national EPA highlighted the transfer of heavy pollution from urban centers to rural areas, and admitted that there was insufficient monitoring of pollution in rural areas. The central government announced in November 2014 it plans to deliver safe drinking water to 298 million rural residents in 2015, but experts believe that target might be impossible to meet.

Chai Jing is a Chinese journalist who is famous for documentaries like Insight, Under The Dome.

At one point in Under the Dome, Chai showed a map of northern China, with smog from coal-burning industrial plants in Hebei province drifting easily to Beijing. "The air has no walls," Chai appealed to the audience. "We are all breathing the same air, suffering the same fate." That’s not entirely true. The experiences of workers of a steel plant in Hebei steel are decidedly different from those of white collar office workers in the capital. Chai’s film began a valuable national conversation about air pollution - its dangers, its causes, and its possible solutions. But it left the crucial issue of class almost untouched.

The future is in our hands.

Thanks for reading.

- Chaitanya Kulkarni